Egypt and Somalia are strengthening their alliance as they prepare to co-lead a new African Union (AU) mission aimed at defeating Al Shabab in Somalia. The mission, African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), will replace the outgoing African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which ended in December. Talks between the two nations are scheduled in Cairo this weekend to finalize Egypt’s role, signaling a significant shift in regional security dynamics.
Egypt’s interest in steering AUSSOM reflects its broader ambition to expand its influence across the Horn of Africa. This initiative is also seen as a strategic counterbalance to Ethiopia amidst their prolonged dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a project Cairo views as a threat to its vital Nile water supply.
With military bases in Eritrea and Djibouti and robust defense pacts with Kenya, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt has laid the groundwork for a broader presence in East Africa. The comprehensive military cooperation agreement signed with Somalia last year includes counterterrorism training, arms supplies, and intelligence sharing, with thousands of elite Egyptian troops already active on Somali soil.
Tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia escalated last year when Addis Ababa struck a maritime access deal with Somaliland. Somalia, asserting its sovereignty, opposes Ethiopian troops’ involvement in AUSSOM. Cairo’s expanding footprint, coupled with its alignment with Mogadishu, could shift the balance of power as the region grapples with terrorism and geopolitical rivalry.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty will meet with Somali and Eritrean counterparts to outline AUSSOM’s command structure and deployment. Sources indicate Egypt seeks joint leadership with Somalia, positioning itself as a dominant force in regional stabilization efforts.
As Egypt deepens ties across Africa, its Nile water dispute with Ethiopia looms large. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s recent comments underscore Egypt’s existential reliance on the river: “The Nile is the lifeblood of Egypt.” This burgeoning Egyptian-Somali alliance may redefine security collaboration in the region while testing AU unity and Ethiopia’s regional influence.
